Moneyball Austin

01/09/2026

AUD is an interesting market that reminds me of the NZD 4–6 weeks ago.

When the NZD was reaching MAX short positions, it was also sitting inside supply. At the time, I mentioned that we should NOT continue shorting. Instead, we should either stay on the sidelines or wait for long signals inside demand, banking on banks/institutions closing their short positions.

I think we may have a similar situation with the AUD right now. The AUD is also reaching MAX shorts while sitting inside supply.

Personally, I would only take very, very small risk here more as a test to see how this plays out and to learn from the situation for future setups like this. 🤔

(See Pictures Below)

01/09/2026

Trading News For The Week 📰📊

US carried out its first strike on Iran in a month as US attacked two missile launchers of the IRGC on Larak Island on Sunday, which were said to be on standby to launch missiles with sea mines toward the Strait of Hormuz, while there were later reports of explosions heard near Larak Island. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned the US strike on Larak Island would be met with a response and punishment, while it said several soldiers and civilians were killed and wounded in the assault.

USD ISM Manufacturing set to come out Tuesday at 55.2 (previous 55.6) and give investors a good outlook on the Manufacturing industry as a whole wither it's growing or slowing down. This has been one of USD more stronger news as it's set to be the 8th conservative month above 50.

JOLT Job Opening Consensus reads a 7.33M (previous 7.36M). Last months reports showed openings fell sharply in wholesale trade (-74,000), nondurable goods manufacturing (-55,000), and the healthcare and social assistance sector, while Openings rose in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+97,000) and within the federal government (+39,000).

AUD GDP expected to be the same at 0.3% as the RBA kept rates the same last week after 3 consecutive rate increases, higher unemployment, higher inflation, and concern about overall growth.

New Zealand is expected to raise interest rates 0.25% to 2.75%. This is the 2nd consecutive rate increase.

Canada is expected to keep rates the same at 2.25% amid soft inflation, global uncertainty. While higher crude prices could add to inflation risks, Canada is also a major Oil exporter, meaning stronger energy prices may support economic growth.

USD NFP & Unemployment Consensus Unemployment Forecast Expected to hold steady at 4.1%. Non Farm will be closely watched as last month's abysmal report and revisions coming out -23k vs 85k forecasted. This will be the FED last piece of monthly data the FED will has access to before the FED meeting the following week as it currently stands a 52% chance of increasing rates.

25/08/2026

Trading News For The Week:

Scott Bessent Press Conference — Monday:
Treasury Secretary Bessent will discuss new Iran sanctions. He says they will be the toughest in history and could heavily pressure Iran’s economy. China is a key risk, as it buys over 80% of Iran’s shipped oil.

RBA Minutes — Tuesday:
The RBA held rates at 4.35% and remained hawkish, saying inflation is still too high and upside risks remain. The minutes will provide more insight into the timing of future rate moves.

AUD CPI — Wednesday:
July CPI is expected to ease to 3.3% Y/Y from 3.8%. A softer print would support the RBA staying on hold, while a stronger number could increase hike expectations.

US PCE — Wednesday:
Headline PCE is expected at +0.1% M/M, with core PCE at +0.2% M/M and 3.3% Y/Y. The key focus remains on whether inflation is continuing to cool.

NVIDIA Earnings — Wednesday:
Nvidia reports after the close. Expectations are already high following strong AI demand and tech CapEx. China remains the main risk, particularly around restrictions on Nvidia’s advanced chips.

ECB Minutes — Thursday:
The ECB held rates unanimously and maintained a data-dependent approach. Some members reportedly questioned whether rates should have been raised, so the minutes could provide clues on the hawkish/dovish split.

Jackson Hole — Thursday–Saturday:
Global central bankers meet in Wyoming, with Fed Chair Warsh speaking Thursday. Markets are focused on whether he gives any clues about September rates. Softer recent US data has increased expectations for a September hold, but Warsh may avoid giving clear guidance.

JPY CPI — Friday:
Japanese CPI is expected around 1.9–2.0% Y/Y. Stronger inflation, especially services inflation, would support expectations for further BoJ tightening, with markets currently pricing a high probability of a September hike.

25/08/2026

Trader shared this short idea, so I wanted to share my opinion on this on what would be going through my head trading the JPY right now.

Context:
- Price DID break through the opposing weekly level of supply, but I personally would not care too much about that given the volatility of the JPY and how weak the JPY has been over the last year.

- Another note to consider is the news for 3-4 weeks ago with the JPY increasing rates + Government intervention.

- Another interesting thing to consider is the JPY is sitting at roughly an 88% chance of "rate increase". Yes, this is already priced into the market, but nonetheless it would support a bullish JPY (bearish GBPJPY). Keep in mind the JPY has CPI data coming out on Friday, so higher-than-expected CPI data would support almost a guaranteed JPY rate increase in September, further supporting this GBPJPY short idea.

- Not much clarity on the JPY COT reports.

Options if I were to consider shorting:

1) Valid straight up to short back into daily supply.

2) Valid to consider shorts on LTF like 1hr or 4hr TF. If that happens, traders may consider a wide SL above the entire daily supply marked on the chart. You may consider this because GBPJPY just continues to rally, making new highs, and you wish to wait for further confirmation.

3) Wait for opposing weekly demand to be removed, then go short.

Overall:
- I'm personally not looking at buying the JPY currency yet, and I would encourage small-risk trading in JPY for now.

21/08/2026

Big day for USA as the US National Debt reaches 40T

19/08/2026

I recently had my 3rd interview with "Trading Nut Podcast," Trading Nut and I wanted to share the recording with you.

I know how valuable these podcasts can be because I remember early on in my trading career, I would be working out at the gym, listening to the "Chat With Traders Podcast".

Just trying to learn as much as I can about trading.

I particularly liked the podcast where the interviewer talked about thinking in probabilities, how to create a system that has an edge, and an "aha!" moment the trader had that finally helped them become profitable.

Anyways, in this podcast, you'll learn about why quitting day-trading after 12 years for swing trading was the best decision, the mindset every losing trader needs to adopt, and I'll break down a live trade review.

In this episode, traveling trader Moneyball Austin returns to expla...

18/08/2026

Copy Trading Is Keeping Broke Traders… BROKE.

I get it: why trade 1 account when you can trade 10?

The rush. The excitement. The “all-in” mindset.

It feels like the fastest way to make serious money.

But it’s usually the exact thing stopping you from becoming profitable.

When you’re copy trading multiple accounts, especially with a small net-worth.

You stop trading the market and start trading your P&L.

Every decision becomes emotional.

You’re thinking about what you might lose…

Or

What does that $2,000 means to you personally?

Maybe a new car, a new Xbox, or maybe a trip to the t***y bar with the ladz...

That kills objectivity. And objectivity is everything in trading.

Instead, focus on ONE account.

Trade small. Trade clean. Trade consistent.

Start with $100–$200 risk. Build a track record. Stack 2–3 payouts. Then scale as confidence AND consistency grow.

Slow scaling beats fast blowups. Every time.

17/08/2026

We had an interesting conversation this week in our group meeting about "Efficient Market Hypothesis" (EMH). is a financial theory stating that asset prices reflect all available information.

It argues that consistently beating the stock market is impossible because stocks, or any asset, always trade at their fair value given all publicly available information. You cannot find hidden bargains or predict future price jumps using past data.

It definitely has its flaws, but it's an interesting theory nonetheless.

Not sure if you guys have any thoughts on this🤔

17/08/2026

Trading News For The Week:📰📊
JPY released GDP numbers this morning, with Japan’s GDP growing 0.3% Q/Q in Q2 vs 0.5% expected, putting the BoJ in an awkward position of raising rates and buying the JPY intervention during a struggling economy.

CAD Canadian monthly CPI data will be released Monday and is expected to rise to 0.4%, from it's July report of -0.4%. Earlier in August, the Canadian Unemployment Rate came out lower at 6.4% and added 75,000 jobs.

US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) aimed at ending fighting between the US and Iran is set to expire on Monday, with little sign that either side is willing to extend the agreement, which both sides have accused the other of violating for weeks.

USD Housing Data will be released Tuesday and is expected to slow down this month from the previous 1.43M to an expected 1.35M. Building permits are expected to stay the same at 1.37M, and pending home sales expected to rise from the previous -5.4% to an expected 0.1%.

Stock Earnings from Home Depot, Lowe's, John Deere, and Walmart are some of the main headliners coming out this week, as investors are keen on getting housing data alongside some home improvement stocks.

Trump Meetings This Week:
- Trump is set to meet with Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff regarding Iran peace talks. as the US-Iran MoU ends on Monday.
- Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister) is scheduled for direct follow-up discussions regarding the transition to the next phase of the U.S. Gaza peace plan.
- Crypto and prediction market executives are slated to meet at the White House for discussions regarding ongoing market structure legislation, running concurrently with related federal advisory committee meetings

Other News For week:
-AUD Employment
- UK + EUR Manufacturing/Services
- GBP CPI
- USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index + Weekly Unemployment Claims

16/08/2026

Diabolical that GenZ sees "sports betting" as part of their investing strategy in 2026.... Yes, as someone who is a "profitable bettor," the reality is that 95-97% lose long-term.