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Development Analytics

DevelopmentAnalytics provides evidence based research for social program and policy development. www.developmentanalytics.org

Our main areas of study are poverty, education, health, social protection and the overall distributional impact of social policies. We specialize in large scale data analysis and statistical methods for social research. Our clients include central governments, international development organizations, NGOs (as well as corporate clients with a social responsibility vision). We provide our clients

with research and tools to (i) understand and diagnose social problems, (ii) devise programs to tackle these issues and (iii) to measure and rigorously evaluate their results.

19/08/2026

📄 We are pleased to share the recent publication by our DA associate Güneş Aşık, published by the World Bank as Social Policy & Labor Discussion Paper No. 2704, "Artificial Intelligence and Labor Market Adjustment in Türkiye: Exposure and Complementarity," co-authored with Siddharth Hari, Efşan Nas Özen, and Dhushyanth Raju.

🔍 The paper provides a systematic diagnostic of how AI-related technological potential is distributed across Türkiye's labor market, applying occupation-level measures of AI exposure and task complementarity to nationally representative labor force survey data and employer-employee administrative records. The findings show that around 41% of employment in Türkiye is in occupations with relatively high exposure to AI, but the scope for productivity-enhancing complementarity varies substantially across occupations, sectors, and worker groups—with women, formal-sector workers, and those in metropolitan regions like İstanbul, Ankara, and İzmir more concentrated in high-exposure jobs. Despite this widespread exposure, the authors find that employment and labor demand patterns across exposure categories have remained largely stable in recent years, suggesting that technological potential alone does not automatically translate into labor market disruption.

📊 Importantly, the paper argues that the economic consequences of AI in Türkiye are likely to unfold gradually, shaped less by the breadth of technological capability than by the economy's capacity to translate that capability into productivity gains through firm adoption, workforce skills, and complementary institutional adjustments. Drawing on firm interviews, vacancy data, and international evidence, the authors identify key policy priorities—expanding AI adoption among SMEs, strengthening workforce skills and lifelong learning, supporting labor market adjustment and inclusion, and building Türkiye's broader AI ecosystem—as central to ensuring that AI's productivity benefits are broadly shared.

🔗 To read the full paper, please follow this link:
https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099704407242668121/pdf/IDU-99871a38-9f7d-44fc-bc04-936ea45d60f5.pdf

🔗 To learn more about Dr Güneş Aşık’s work and experience, please follow this link:
https://www.developmentanalytics.org/team/g%C3%BCne%C5%9F-a%C5%9F%C4%B1k%2C-ph.d.-

14/08/2026

The ECE Investment and Costing Analysis in Türkiye

💡 ECE enrolment has grown over the past decade in Türkiye, but lags behind the OECD averages. In 2024–25, 82.5% of 5-year-olds were enrolled in pre-primary education and 49.0% of 3–5 year olds, against an OECD average of 83.7%.

📖 To help inform the policy discussion around further expansion, Development Analytics carried out the “Early Childhood Education (ECE) Costing Analysis in Türkiye” for UNICEF Türkiye, published in 2024.

It answers two connected questions: what would expansion cost, and who actually benefits?

📊 A key output of the work was an interactive, Excel-based simulation tool — the ECE Costing Model with Distributional Analysis — adapted from UNICEF’s ECE Accelerator Simulation Model.

📊 Across four scenarios including both supply side and demand side measures — from free public kindergartens to mixed models with subsidised private providers and municipal crèches — improving access significantly for 3-5-year-olds was found to be achievable and at different costs according to the implemented scenario.

📊 Different scenarios generate different implications for total investment and operating costs, the balance of financing between actors, and, importantly, how equitably additional ECE places are distributed across income groups.

🔗 We have now brought the main findings of this work together in a new interactive summary report — explore the scenarios, costs and distributional results here: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/ece-investment-and-costing-analysis-in-t%C3%BCrkiye

🔗 To learn more about DA's work on ECE costing and investment analysis, visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/designing-and-costing-ece

🔗 If you're interested in exploring a similar costing and distributional analysis for early childhood education in your own country, get in touch via this form: https://form.jotform.com/241124655192958

07/08/2026

Costing and designing Early Childhood Education (ECE) service expansion for maximum impact

Investing in ECE is a pivotal strategy for fostering child development that sets children on a path for a more equitable future. With so many available models to expand ECE services, costing different options and assessing which children benefit from each offers invaluable insights for policy making.

In the last decade, we have led various research projects related to ECE and education outcomes for various organizations, including the World Bank, UNICEF, and Agence Française de Développement (AfD). We have extensive experience in devising simulation models to assess the anticipated impact of social policies and programs on population and child outcomes, along with calculating the total costs associated with such policies. Our experience further extends to devising simulation models specifically tailored for ECE expansion policies.

Our approach doesn't stop at analysis; we are actively engaged in presenting the research through interactive tools. Such tools empower stakeholders to explore different scenarios, compare and contrast them through examining several indicators and refine their decisions based on real-time data insights.

📖 Read more about our projects on estimating the distributional impact and costs of ECE services expansion policies here: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/designing-and-costing-ece

🔗 Or if you're interested in learning more about conducting a study in your country, click here to arrange a meeting: https://form.jotform.com/241124655192958

31/07/2026

📚 Publication Highlight

The Handbook on Child Poverty and Inequality, edited by Alberto Minujin and Enrique Delamonica, is a significant contribution to the growing body of research focused on understanding poverty through a child-centered lens. Bringing together insights from leading scholars and practitioners, the handbook examines the complex and multidimensional nature of poverty and inequality experienced by children across diverse social and economic contexts.

🔍 A key strength of the handbook lies in its strong emphasis on multidimensionality. Rather than treating child poverty as solely an income-based phenomenon, the volume expands the analytical lens to include education, health, nutrition, housing, social protection, disability, gender disparities, and broader structural inequalities. It also engages critically with methodological challenges in measuring child poverty, highlighting approaches that better reflect children’s lived experiences across different stages of life and contexts. This makes it an important reference for both researchers and policymakers working on child well-being and social development.

🌍 This handbook is a valuable resource for researchers, policymakers, development professionals, and students seeking evidence-based perspectives on child poverty and inequality. Its interdisciplinary scope and global relevance make it an important reference for informing policies and interventions aimed at improving the lives and opportunities of children worldwide.

💡 In practice, these methodological advancements are increasingly being applied to real-world policy challenges. For example, Development Analytics works at the intersection of research and implementation by combining monetary and multidimensional poverty measurement approaches to support child-focused policy design. Our work integrates tools such as the Multiple Overlapping Deprivations Analysis (MODA), the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), and microsimulation models to better identify vulnerable children and assess policy impacts. This includes supporting governments and partners in designing child benefit programmes, simulating policy scenarios, and strengthening evidence-based decision-making in diverse country contexts.

🔗 To learn more about DA’s work: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/tackling-child-poverty

🔗 Handbook: https://www.elgaronline.com/edcollbook/book/9781802200430/9781802200430.xml

🔗 Review: https://www.cgdev.org/blog/book-review-handbook-child-poverty-and-inequality

26/06/2026

Making Women’s Deprivation Visible: Multidimensional Poverty Analysis for Gender-Responsive Policy.

🔎 Understanding women’s poverty requires looking beyond income alone. While 11.4% of women and 10.9% of men worldwide live in extreme monetary poverty, these figures often rely on the assumption that household resources are shared equally among all members. In reality, many women experience forms of deprivation that remain hidden in conventional poverty measures, including limited access to education, employment opportunities, services, time, and decision-making power. A multidimensional approach helps reveal these realities and provides a more comprehensive understanding of women’s wellbeing.

📊 A gender-sensitive multidimensional poverty analysis allows governments and development partners to identify which groups of women face the greatest risks of deprivation, including adolescent girls, women with disabilities, older women, migrant women, and those living in disadvantaged communities. By examining the prevalence and intensity of deprivation across multiple dimensions, policymakers can better understand how poverty is experienced and where interventions can have the greatest impact.

🤝 At Development Analytics, we support governments and development partners in generating evidence that informs gender-responsive social protection, employment, and care policies. Drawing on nationally representative surveys and qualitative research, our work helps identify the drivers of women’s multidimensional poverty and translates evidence into practical policy solutions. If you are interested in exploring women’s multidimensional poverty, care responsibilities, and economic empowerment in your country, we would be pleased to discuss how such a study could support your policy priorities.

🔗If you are interested in exploring women’s multidimensional poverty in your country, register your interest here: https://form.jotform.com/261741530847459

12/06/2026

Estimating the economic value of unpaid care work

💡The invisible labour of caring for others has long been undervalued for its contribution to the economy, as it falls outside traditional definitions of work and is not included in national income accounts such as GDP. Globally, women contribute to 76% of total unpaid care work, leading to increased time poverty and reduced participation in the labour force.

📊 Acknowledging the economic significance of unpaid care work is essential for recognising its vital contribution. Estimating its value can offer valuable insights into the development of gender-transformative policies related to employment, labour, and leave worldwide.

🔍 In the past decade, Development Analytics has carried out several studies focusing on gender and childcare policies and programmes for partners and clients, including the World Bank, UNICEF, and AfD. DA’s extensive work in this area also includes estimating the economic value of unpaid care work in the household.

📊We estimate the economic value of unpaid care work by leveraging data from time-use surveys. By associating the time allocated to these activities with the monetary value of time in the labour market, we quantify the significant economic contribution of unpaid care work to society as a whole. Our estimations are disaggregated for women and men, emphasising gender disparities.

📖 Read more about our approach to estimating the economic value of unpaid care work and our previous work on gender and social policies here:
https://www.developmentanalytics.org/estimating-the-economic-value-of-unpaid-care-work

🔗 Or if you're interested in learning more about conducting a similar study in your country, click here to arrange a meeting:
https://form.jotform.com/241143437218956

05/06/2026

📰📌Publication Highlight

📊 Published in May 2026, UNICEF Innocenti’s Report Unequal Chances: Children and economic inequality offers a sobering but essential reminder: even in the world’s wealthiest countries, economic growth has not translated into equal opportunities for all children.

⚖️ The report highlights that child well-being (taken as physical health, mental well‑being and skills) across 44 high-income and OECD countries is deeply shaped by inequality. Children growing up in lower-income households are significantly more likely to experience poorer physical health, lower life satisfaction, and weaker educational and social outcomes. Importantly, the findings show that countries with higher economic equality tend to have better child well‑being in a number of aspects, reinforcing that prosperity alone is not enough without equality.

👶 Perhaps most striking is the persistence of child poverty in these contexts, affecting at least 1 in 10 children in every country studied, and far higher in some. The report underscores that reducing inequality and child poverty is not only a moral imperative but also central to improving national-level child well-being outcomes.

🔗 Read more about the report here: https://www.unicef.org/innocenti/reports/report-card-20

💡At Development Analytics, we work to turn evidence like this into actionable insights for policy and programming that reduce inequality and improve children’s outcomes.

🔗 Explore our work on tackling child poverty here: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/tackling-child-poverty

01/06/2026

As North Macedonia marks International Children’s Day today, we are reminded of the importance of continuing efforts to support children’s wellbeing and reduce child poverty in the country.

At Development Analytics, we are proud to have partnered with UNICEF North Macedonia on the study “Strengthening Child Benefits: Options to Enhance the Impact of Cash Benefits for Children”, contributing evidence to support discussions on how social protection systems can better protect children and families.

The study highlights a critical challenge: despite important social protection reforms, nearly 3 in 10 children in North Macedonia remain at risk of poverty. Using microsimulation analysis, our research examined alternative policy pathways to strengthen child-related cash benefits, improve coverage and adequacy, and reduce child poverty while remaining fiscally feasible.

Earlier this month, our Managing Director, Hazal Oz, presented the findings during the policy discussion “Investing in Children – Advancing Human Capital, Women’s Employment and Inclusive Growth” in Skopje, bringing together government representatives including the Minister of Social Policy, Demography and Youth, Fatmir Limani, and the State Secretary Fatmir Sabriu, UNICEF, development partners, academia, and civil society to discuss evidence-based options for strengthening support to children and families.

As North Macedonia continues to advance reforms, including discussions around expanding child benefits and exploring universal child allowance options, evidence remains essential for designing policies that are equitable, effective, and sustainable.

On this Children’s Day, we join partners in reaffirming a simple but powerful message:
🎯 Every child deserves the opportunity to grow, learn, and reach their full potential.
🎯 Stronger child-sensitive social protection systems are not only investments in children’s wellbeing today, but also investments in human capital, social inclusion, and the future prosperity of societies.

We thank UNICEF North Macedonia, the Ministry of Social Policy, Demography and Youth, the State Statistical Office, and all stakeholders who contributed to this important work.

UNICEF MK, Lesley Miller, Silvia Chiarucci, Aleksandar Nikolov, Pamela Dale.

📖 Read the study: https://www.unicef.org/northmacedonia/reports/strengthening-child-benefits-options-enhance-impact-cash-benefits-children

27/03/2026

Design of Shock-Responsive Social Protection Programmes

Disasters due to natural hazards, fueled by climate change, are driving millions into poverty annually, causing billions in economic damage and displacing thousands. Shock-responsive social protection schemes are crucial in mitigating these effects.

We have already partnered with various UNICEF offices to estimate shock impacts and cash transfer effectiveness. For countries including Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Tajikistan, Georgia, St Lucia and Madagascar, our team has led pioneering research providing insights into the benefits of social protection programmes following different types of shocks, including earthquakes, floods and COVID-19.

Our approach doesn't stop at analysis; we're actively engaged in presenting the research through interactive web applications. Interactive Social Policy Simulator (ISPS) empowers stakeholders to explore the impact of shocks at different severity levels and examine the poverty alleviating impact of cash transfer scenarios that can be implemented after the shocks. The users can change the size of cash transfers and their targeting, compare and contrast the scenarios through examining several indicators and refine their decisions based on real-time data insights.

📖 Read more about our recent projects on estimating the impact of shocks and using various cash transfer modalities to alleviate their impact here: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/design-of-shock-responsive-social-protection-programmes

🔗 Or if you're interested in learning more about conducting a study in your country, click here to register your interest for a meeting, and we will get in touch with you: https://form.jotform.com/241062147859965

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